Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."

• Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
• Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.