Polls Open in Holland as Polls Suggest Potential Repeat Win for Geert Wilders

The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.